基于随机优势与概率优势的风险型多属性决策方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姚升保 《预测》2007,26(3):33-38

本文讨论属性值用概率分布函数描述的风险型多属性决策问题。首先,分析了利用随机优势描述偏好的局限性;其次,给出概率优势的概念,并得出了随机优势与概率优势在比较随机变量取值优劣方面具有互补性的结论;再次,针对风险型多属性决策问题,结合随机优势与概率优势共同描述方案在单个属性下的局部偏好,并利用赋值级别高于关系的思想集结得到总体偏好关系;最后给出了一个实例,计算结果表明:与文献中仅用随机优势描述偏好的方法相比,本文所给的决策方法的求解结果要好。  相似文献   

浅谈绿色工位管理     

田光大  郑立新等 《科技与管理》2000,(2):40-42

针对企业中制造系统管理存在的问题,把全面质量管理与实际生产相结合,提出了绿色工位管理方式,并介绍了绿色工位管理的基本原理及具体实施方式,这种管理方法是达到精益生产的有效途径。  相似文献   

基于全寿命周期的软件项目投标风险规避研究          下载免费PDF全文

谢刚  张金隆 《科研管理》2006,27(3):97-102,89

文章研究了将项目管理风险集成到投标风险,运用全寿命周期理论实施软件项目投标风险规避的问题。首先,介绍了软件项目全寿命周期流程和寿命周期各阶段的主要风险要素;其次,分析了软件项目投标风险对应的风险规避措施;最后,提出了软件项目投标风险规避的基本决策过程,并举例。  相似文献   

Data Mining to Combat Terrorism and the Roots of Privacy Concerns     

Frans?A.?J.?BirrerEmail author 《Ethics and Information Technology》2005,7(4):211-220

Recently, there has been a heavy debate in the US about the government’s use of data mining in its fight against terrorism. Privacy concerns in fact led the Congress to terminate the funding of TIA, a program for advanced information technology to be used in the combat of terrorism. The arguments put forward in this debate, more specifically those found in the main report and minority report by the TAPAC established by the Secretary of Defense to examine the TIA issue, will be analysed to trace the deeper roots of this controversy. This analysis will in turn be used as a test case to examine the adequacy of the usual theoretical frameworks for these kinds of issues, in particular the notion of privacy. Whereas the dominant theoretical framing of the notion of privacy turns around access to information, most of the core arguments in the debate do not fit in this kind of framework. The basic disagreements in the controversy are not about mere access, they involve both access and use. Furthermore, whereas the issue of access by itself refers to a more or less static situation, the real disagreements much more concern the organisational dynamics of the use of information, the mechanisms in the organisation that control these dynamics, and the awareness present within the organisation of the ‘social risks’ these dynamics represent. The bottom line question is whether the assessment of these gives sufficient reason for trust.  相似文献   

复杂项目界面风险管理模型研究   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

朱启超  陈英武  匡兴华 《科研管理》2005,26(6):149-156

当前项目管理的研究主要集中在对项目内容范围和管理方法的研究，却很少对项目工作模块或管理模块的接口信息给予关注。本文遵循模块化思想，从系统理论和组织理论的角度尝试提出界面风险和界面风险管理的概念，从时间维、要素维和关系维三个维度描述项目所有界面管理活动，分析了项目界面风险类型及其特征，建立了项目界面风险动态评估与管理的模型，为高技术项目风险的多维分析和全寿命管理提供了一个新的思路。  相似文献   

基于风险防范体系构建的企业知识管理研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王秀山  林莉  史宪睿 《软科学》2005,19(1):85-87,96

知识经济催生了知识管理,使其成为当今企业管理的热点。但管理学界在对知识管理基本理论问题的探讨中往往着眼于知识管理的“优势”,忽视了知识管理的风险及知识管理风险防范体系的构建。知识管理是一个伴随风险的过程,其中存在技术创新风险、人力资本流动风险、契约风险、泄密风险、时滞风险、道德风险等,基于知识管理风险分析,致力于构建知识管理风险防范体系,以实现最大化企业知识管理的价值。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯理论的企业新产品开发风险决策GERT网络模型     

郭本海  陈玮  吕东东 《科技管理研究》2016,(22):208-213

构建以企业新产品开发基本过程为基础的GERT网络模型,度量于研发过程实施针对性管控措施前后新产品开发成功概率;结合贝叶斯决策理论建立评估产品收益的数学模型,计算企业购买情报前后新产品的期望收益,测度完全情报价值和购买情报的净收益。研究结果揭示了新产品开发成本、成功率和市场需求量等因素的相互作用,并为企业新产品开发于不同情境和因素下的决策提供依据。  相似文献   

对提高我国企业技术创新能力的思考     

孙晓宁  李军训  田伟 《技术与创新管理》2007,28(3):110-111

从产品、资金、R＆D投入的角度阐述了我国企业技术创新能力低下的主要原因，对影响我国企业技术创新能力提高的4个主要因素：科技与经济存在“两张皮”、缺乏技术创新的动力、技术引进与消化、人员素质进行了重点分析，结合国际大型企业经验，提出了提高我国企业技术创新能力的相应对策。  相似文献   

基于合作网络中心性指标的科研团队学术带头人识别研究     

李纲  刘先红 《科技管理研究》2016,(8):127-132

合作网络中心性指标越来越多地被应用于科研团队学术带头人的识别,但识别的合理性与有效性有待论证。基于此,归纳科研团队学术带头人的胜任特征,并分析合作网络中心性指标测度这些胜任特征的合理性。以14个受资助的国家自然科学基金创新研究群体为对象,从识准率和识全率两个方面对网络中心性指标识别科研团队学术带头人的有效性进行实证分析。  相似文献   

Comparative account of serum lipids,lipoproteins and apolipoprotein-B in patients of coronary artery disease     

Ritu Sharma  Mridula Mahajan  Ravi Kant 《Indian journal of clinical biochemistry : IJCB》2004,19(1):10-13

Serum total lipids (cholesterol and triglyceride), lipoproteins (VLDL, LDL and HDL) and Apolipoprotein-B levels of normal healthy individuals (n=25) and coronary artery disease patients (n=25) were estimated. The objective of the present study was to ascertain the role of apo-B in causation and inheritance of coronary artery disease. It was observed that on an average serum total cholesterol and triglyceride more than 200 mg/dl bring the individuals to a risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) irrespective of the age. CAD patients achieved this value at an early age (35–45 years). Similarly VLDL and LDL levels were found to be significantly raised in CAD patients when compared to that of age matched normal individuals, with patients achieving risk values at an early age. HDL levels were found to be significantly lower in CAD patients as compared to normal individuals. Serum apo-B levels were significantly raised in CAD patients as compared to age matched normal individuals. Patients with positive family history of CAD had raised serum apo-B levels than those having negative family history. A positive coefficient of correlation was observed between serum apo-B and LDL levels suggesting that more the number of Apo-B particles, more will be the synthesis of atherogenic particle (LDL). Patients with negative family history had serum apo-B levels closer to those of normal individuals and in these individuals HDL levels were found to be significantly lowered, suggesting that loss of scavenger role of HDL could be the risk factor responsible for the causation of CAD in these patients, with negative family history of coronary artery disease.  相似文献